JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, Vol. 43 No. 3, June 1999, 267-90.

Abstract. This paper identifies the sources of humanitarian emergencies, characterized by warfare, displacement, hunger, and disease. Our research is, to our knowledge, the first econometric analysis of the sources of complex humanitarian emergencies. We emphasize that economic variables often become salient through relative deprivation. Our econometric analysis indicates that stagnation and decline in real GDP, a high ratio of military expenditures to national income, a tradition of violent conflict, and less clearly, high income inequality, and slow growth in average food production, are sources of emergencies. Also inflation and low levels of International Monetary Fund funding are associated with emergencies, although the direction of causation may be opposite.

We acknowledge the financial contribution of UNU/WIDER, Finland's Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency, but we are solely responsible for errors.